Churn Score

What is churn score?

Churn score measures the share of active customers who are showing signs of potential churn within a specific period. These are customers whose recent behavior, engagement patterns, or account activity suggest a higher-than-normal likelihood of canceling, downgrading, or not renewing.

By quantifying the proportion of customers at risk, businesses can prioritize retention efforts, design targeted interventions, and prevent predictable revenue loss before it occurs.

Why churn score matters

• Early warning system: Identifies churn risk before it impacts revenue, giving teams time to take preventive action.
• Resource allocation: Helps prioritize high-value or high-risk segments for retention campaigns.
• Strategy refinement: Insights from at-risk profiles inform product improvements, customer success approaches, and messaging.

How to calculate churn score

Identify at-risk criteria: Define the behaviors, events, or conditions that classify a customer as “at risk.” Examples include declining usage frequency, missed payments, negative feedback, or reduced engagement with core features.

Apply the formula

Formula: Churn Score= (Number of customers flagged as at risk ÷ Total active customers) × 100

Example: If you have 1,000 active customers and 120 meet your at-risk criteria, your churn score is: (120 ÷ 1,000) × 100 = 12%

Inclusions and exclusions

• Include: Active customers meeting defined churn risk signals.
• Exclude: Customers already churned, canceled, or expired, as well as prospects who have never converted.

Related metrics

Key considerations

• Criteria accuracy matters: Use behavioral, transactional, and support interaction data to define risk indicators.‍
• Segment by value: Weight at-risk customers by revenue contribution or lifetime value to focus efforts where the impact is greatest.
• ‍Measure impact over time: Track changes in churn score after implementing retention campaigns.

Churn score in subscription businesses

For subscription-based models, this metric directly ties to recurring revenue stability. A high churn score can signal upcoming declines in Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) or Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). By segmenting at-risk subscribers based on tenure, engagement behavior, or product usage, teams can deploy targeted actions, such as winback offers, personalized content recommendations, or proactive customer support, to stabilize retention. Tracking the shift in this metric over time also provides a clear view of whether retention strategies are effective.

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