The results

The price rise test proved that increasing subscription prices 40% would boost Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) per subscriber by more than 32% over a 3-year period, despite the price increase immediately triggering higher churn rates.

Impact (treatment vs. control group)

• +32% CLV lift per subscriber
• 40% higher ARPU on new price tier
• Minimal retention rate trade-off of 1.1% (better retention with the control group receiving no price increase)

“The Subsets Platform has enabled us to plan and execute these retention experiments with speed and accuracy. What once used to take multiple months, from campaign ideation to launch, then analysis, can now be done in very little time. The depth and breadth of the results analysis we can generate from Subsets has been invaluable.”
– Andy Wilson, Head of Retention, DailyMail+

The challenge

A key priority of DailyMail+ is to grow long-term subscriber value. When DailyMail+ launched in early 2024, the immediate focus was on growing the subscription base, which grew to 250k subscribers in just 18 months.

The next step was to focus more on customer lifetime value (CLV), building on the subscriber growth already achieved and aiming to increase the value each subscriber delivers over time.

However, measuring the impact of pricing strategies on CLV has always been difficult for subscription businesses. A price increase brings higher ARPU, but it also often drives churn. The real challenge is understanding whether the long-term lift in CLV outweighs the short-term revenue loss from churn.

The DailyMail+ team’s CRM system provided visibility into short-term campaign metrics such as opens and clicks, but it did not show how these translated into retention rates, subscriber revenue, or long-term CLV.

Since their CRM system did not provide retention or revenue insights, the retention team had to turn to internal data teams for manual analysis. This made the process resource-intensive and left them without a clear answer on whether a price increase could offset a potential loss of retention.

The solution

DailyMail+ used Subsets to design and measure a price rise experiment, testing the impact of increasing subscription prices by 40%, with the goal of forecasting and comparing CLV between treatment and control groups.

With Subsets connected directly to subscriber behavior and pricing data, the process can be automated end-to-end, from audience segmentation to experimental design and CLV forecasting. This gave the retention team autonomy and clarity on the revenue and retention impact of their strategy, without requiring technical assistance.

Detailed case study

The hypothesis

The DailyMail+ team believed that a carefully communicated price increase could raise long-term value without significantly harming retention. They expected some churn, but hypothesized that the higher value of retained subscribers would outweigh the loss.

The aim was to determine whether the additional revenue from higher prices would fully offset the retention loss and deliver a net gain in CLV.

The solution

DailyMail+ used Subsets to run a price rise experiment with an audience of specifically selected active subscribers, testing a 40% price increase with notice given at different intervals prior to the actual price rise taking place. The retention team aimed to measure both the impact on retention and the resulting potential revenue lift on the treatment group. The goal was to understand the trade-off between churn and revenue.

The team also sought to forecast how these results would impact customer lifetime value (CLV) over time, examining the effects after several months, as well as one, two, and three years.

With Subsets, the retention team could manage the full workflow, from audience segmentation to measuring outcomes and CLV forecasting.

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1. Audience segmentation and orchestration for the test

Subsets segmented the audience into treatment and control groups, allowing for a clean comparison and automated analysis of the results. The treatment group was synced directly to DailyMail+’s billing and CRM systems through Subsets.

2. Automated measurement of retention metrics

With Subsets connected to subscription billing and engagement data, the platform automatically tracked retention metrics, calculated revenue lift, and measured statistical significance.

For the DailyMail+ team, the goal was to understand how a higher subscription price would affect both retention and revenue, and whether the additional income would outweigh any decline in retention. Subsets provided daily comparisons of retention rates and pricing between the treatment and control groups and showed whether the differences were statistically significant. This gave the DailyMail+ team a real-time view of the experiment.

The retention and revenue metrics were the foundation for the automated actualized and forecasted CLV calculations provided within Subsets.‍

3. CLV forecasting

The DailyMail+ team not only wanted to see the immediate impact of the price rise but also how it would affect subscriber value over time, measured by CLV. Because Subsets is combining retention and pricing data, the DailyMail+ team can automatically monitor CLV forecasts across different periods to assess whether the price rise results in a positive impact on revenue.

The forecast showed a 32% lift in CLV per subscriber after three years. Subsets updates the forecasting daily to improve accuracy, as more data is collected. This is giving the team confidence in both the short-term results and the long-term outlook.

“Although speed to launch is a big benefit, the depth and breadth of the results analysis we can generate from the platform has been invaluable.” 
– Andy Wilson, Head of Retention, DailyMail+

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